Deloitte CFO Signals survey: optimism surges for 2025, but risks remain

Economic optimism reaches new heights

Deloitte’s survey reveals a striking shift in sentiment among North American CFOs. Nearly 72% expect economic conditions to improve over the next 12 months—a significant leap from just 19% in the previous quarter. This optimism extends across regions:

• North America: 72% expect improvement, compared to 19% in Q3.
• Europe: 37% anticipate better conditions, up from 5%.
• South America: CFOs are similarly hopeful about economic recovery.

The drivers behind this confidence include stabilising political conditions in the US and recent interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which are expected to boost economic activity.

Growth expectations for companies

CFOs are equally optimistic about their companies’ performance:

• Revenues: Most anticipate revenue growth, driven by increased consumer and business demand.
• Earnings: Profitability outlooks have also improved significantly, with many preparing for stronger financial results in 2025.

Notably, the CFO confidence index rose to 5.8—the highest level in ten quarters—indicating a widespread belief in the resilience of both the economy and individual organisations.

The unseen risks in an optimistic economy

Despite the positive outlook, CFOs must not overlook the persistent and evolving risks that accompany economic growth. Cybercrime, particularly payment fraud, remains a significant threat to businesses. Over the past three years, payment fraud attempts have surged by nearly 60%, targeting finance teams through sophisticated tactics such as business email compromise (BEC) and phishing schemes.

BEC alone accounts for over $2 billion in annual losses in the US, making it the most financially damaging cyber threat. Additionally, human error plays a significant role in cyber incidents, with over 80% of breaches originating from phishing emails or weak password practices.

Bridging confidence and security

To navigate this period of growth successfully, finance leaders should balance optimism with security. Safeguarding financial operations against fraud requires a proactive approach:

• Implement payment verification protocols: Ensure all transactions are verified before disbursing funds.
• Educate finance teams: Conduct regular training to identify phishing emails and other fraudulent tactics.
• Leverage technology: Use tools that offer real-time insights and alerts for irregularities in payment workflows.

With an informed team and secure processes, CFOs can confidently guide their organisations through the opportunities and challenges of 2025.